Kedia Commodity Update
Gold ended 1 percent lower as technical selling and lower risk sentiment prompted bullion investors to lock in profits after last week's rally. Gold opened 16890 and made a high of t 11893 and traded quietly within a range as investors moved to the sidelines. A stronger USD and weaker oil prices inspired good selling in front of the London fix, finding support near 16720. This level could not hold as profit taking continued to wash out longs, pulling gold to an intraday low of 16681. It recovered near the latter end of the session and finally settled at 16740. Now support for the gold MCX is seen at 16649 and below could see a test of 16559. Resistance is now likely to be seen at 16861, a move above could see prices testing 16983.
Trading Ideas:
Gold trading range is 16559-16983.
Gold ended lower as technical selling and lower risk sentiment prompted investors to book profits
Support for the gold is at 16680 and resistance is at 16790 level
In spot gold is having support at 1116$ and resistance is at 1128$
SELL GOLD APR @ 16750-770 SL 16811 TGT 16716-16680-16634.MCX
Silver fell with gold on a day when there was liquidation, in which traders were selling to exit positions in which they previously bought. The Gold Silver ratio is lower again for the 5th day in a row to current 65.20. Silver opened at 27098 and ticked higher on the back of strong investment demand, touching a high of 27168. This move later reversed and the metal followed weaker oil prices lower. The metal was well offered for much of the morning, dragging it to an intraday low of 26712. Light buying carried the metal off its lows, squeezing out shorts as the day unwound, closing at 26883. Now support for the silver is seen at 26674 and below could see a test of 26465. Resistance is now likely to be seen at 27130, a move above could see prices testing 27377.
Trading Ideas:
Silver trading range is 26465-27377.
Silver ended down tracking weakness in gold and crude prices
Silver is taking support at 26740 and resistance at 26990 level.
The Gold Silver ratio is lower again for the 5th day in a row to current 65.20.
SELL SILVER MAY @ 26880-920 SL 27040 TGT 26816-26740-26650.MCX
Oil prices recovered slightly its losses after seesawing for most of the day, supported by demand expectations owing to positive outlook of the US economy. The greenback's loss against the euro also helped the prices to rise moderately. OPEC will keep output targets steady, but could raise output later in the year as the economy recovers. Now support for the crude is seen at 3680 and below could see a test of 3652. Resistance is now likely to be seen at 3741, a move above could see prices testing 3774.
Trading Ideas:
Crude trading range is 3652-3774.
Oil recovered slightly supported by demand expectations owing to positive outlook of the US economy.
Support for the crude is seen at 3682 and resistance is at 3734.
OPEC will keep output targets steady, but could raise output later in the year
SELL CRUDE MAR @ 3720-3730 SL 3756 TGT 3700-3676-3660.MCX
Copper finished a tad lower as participants booked profits from recent gains, investor tolerance for riskier assets waned and the U.S. dollar strengthened. Inventories of copper stored in LME warehouses fell 1,575 metric tons, leaving them at 541,575. Of that, 29,625 tons, or 5.47%, have been cancelled. The most recent Comex inventory data, released late Friday afternoon, were unchanged at 102,192 short tons. Copper has touched a low of Rs 340.55 a kg after opening at Rs 345.3, and last traded at Rs342.7.For today market is looking for the support at 339.7, a break below could see a test of 336.8 and where as resistance is now likely to be seen at 346.5, a move above could see prices testing 350.3.346.5, a move above could see prices testing 350.3.
Trading Ideas:
Copper trading range is 336.8-350.3.
Copper finished lower as participants booked profits from recent gains
Copper is getting resistance at 344.40 and support is at 340 level below this could test 332 level.
Copper daily stock at Shanghai exchange came up by 3871 tonnes.
SELL COPPER APR @ 344-345 SL 348.60 TGT 342.80-340.60-338.80.MCX
Mitsui Mining & Smelting Co. said it raised its zinc selling price by Y15,000 to Y255,000 a metric ton. This will bring the average zinc selling price for March to Y251,600. Zinc yesterday we have seen that market has moved 0.37%. Market has opened at 107.15 & made a low of 105.8 versus the day high of 108.8. The total volume for the day was at 35569 lots and the open interest was at 5607.Now support for the zinc is seen at 105.7 and below could see a test of 104.3. Resistance is now likely to be seen at 108.7, a move above could see prices testing 110.3.
Trading Ideas:
Zinc trading range is 104.3-110.3.
Mitsui Mining & Smelting Co. has raised its zinc selling price
Support for the zinc is at 106.05 and resistance is at 108.30.
Zinc daily stock at Shanghai exchange came down by -149 tonnes.
BUY ZINC MAR ON PULL BACK AT 105 SL 103.80 TGT 105.80-106.60-107.50.MCX
The world output of nickel in 2009 shrunk largely an extent of its reduction in comparison with that forecasted at the beginning of 2009 and, consequently, the excessive quantity of nickel produced in 2009 had caused to increase LME nickel stocks and also to be absorbed by more imports of nickel into China in 2009. LME nickel stocks were 78,800 tonnes at the beginning of 2009 but increased to 162,000 tonnes as of the end December of 2009. Nickel has touched a low of Rs 1005.6 a kg after opening at Rs.1022.1, and last traded at Rs 1017.8.For today market is looking for the support at 1004, a break below could see a test of 990.1 and where as resistance is now likely to be seen at 1033.3, a move above could see prices testing 1048.7.
Trading Ideas:
Nickel trading range is 990.1-1048.7.
Global nickel output in 2009 down 4pct YoY
Nickel is getting support at 1012.20 and resistance is at 1023.80.
LME nickel stocks rose by 82300 tonnes to 162000 tonnes from Jan to Dec 2009.
SELL NICKEL MAR @ 1028-1032 SL 1042 TGT 1022-1016.50-1012.MCX
Guar ended lower tracking a sluggish spot market and ample guar gum stocks. In the Jodhpur spot market, guar dropped by 42 rupees to 2,347 rupees per 100 kg. In the coming days, as the arrival of chana and rapeseed will start in the markets of Rajasthan, traders would start holding these commodities due to lower prices and would offload guar. Guar yesterday we have seen that market has moved -1.75%. Market has opened at 2348 & made a low of 2282 versus the day high of 2356. The total volume for the day was at 135710 lots and the open interest was at 119660.Now support for the guar is seen at 2272 and below could see a test of 2240. Resistance is now likely to be seen at 2346, a move above could see prices testing 2388.
Trading Ideas:
Guar trading range is 2240-2388.
Guar ended lower tracking a sluggish spot market and ample guar gum stocks
Guar is having support at 2272 and resistance at 2324 level.
NCDEX accredited warehouses guar stocks rose by 10 tonnes to 29752 tonnes.
In Jodhpur dropped by 42 rupees to 2,347 rupees per 100 kg
SELL GUAR MAR BELOW 2300 SL 2322 TGT 2286-2270-2256.NCDEX
Pepper erased early losses to end higher tracking marginal recovery in the domestic enquiries. Vietnam is not willing to sell at the current lower levels. This is supporting the trading sentiment. At the Kochi market, pepper prices gained 36 rupees to end at 13,132 rupees 100 kg. March delivery gained Rs 57 and settled at Rs 12841/quintal. The contract touched the intraday high of Rs 12888/quintal while low of Rs 12731/quintal. Now support for the pepper is seen at 12752 and below could see a test of 12663. Resistance is now likely to be seen at 12909, a move above could see prices testing 12977.
Trading Ideas:
Pepper trading range is 12663-12977.
Pepper to end higher tracking marginal recovery in the domestic enquiries
Resistance for pepper is seen at 12910 and support is at 12750.
Yesterday we have seen that open interest at 5735 and volume at 2042 lots.
In spot pepper prices gained by over 36 rupees to 13132 rupees per 100 kg.
BUY PEPPER MAR @ 12800 SL 12720 TGT 12860-12922-12980.NCDEX
Mentha oil ended higher and made new contracts high on buying support. Demand in physical markets garnered support to prices along with robust stockists buying. On March 6th, total stock of mentha oil at MCX-monitored warehouses at Chandausi was 8,40,969 kg of which 8,07,149 kg is physical stock and 33,819 is the demat stock. March contract gained Rs 16.2 and settled at Rs 618 a kg. The contract made intraday low of Rs 602.2 a kg and high of Rs 619 a kg with the volume of 2888 and total open interest for the same contact was at 3184.Now support for the menthol is seen at 607.1 and below could see a test of 596.3. Resistance is now likely to be seen at 623.9, a move above could see prices testing 629.9.
Trading Ideas:
Menthol Oil trading range is 595-629.
Mentha oil spot is at 676/-.Spot market is up by Rs 14/-.
Resistance for the mentha oil is at 621.80 and support is at 614.60.
Total stock of mentha at MCX-monitored warehouses at Chandausi was 8,40,969 kg as on Mar 6
Mentha oil ended higher getting support from physical market with robust stockists buying
BUY MENTHA OIL MAR @ 610-613 SL 604 TGT 618-622-624.MCX
Soyabean yesterday ended tracking weak demand from spot market. Overseas market traded in positive territory but domestic prices failed to garner support from there. Soyabean yesterday we have seen that market has moved -0.21%. Market has opened at 2122 & made a low of 2102 versus the day high of 2134. The total volume for the day was at 52860 lots and the open interest was at 119020.Support for soyabean is at 2099 below that could see a test of 2085. Resistance is now seen at 2131 above that could see a resistance of 2149.
Trading Ideas:
Soyabean trading range is 2085-2149.
Soyabean yesterday ended tracking weak demand from spot market
Resistance for the soyabean oil is at 2099 and support is at 2131.
In Indore spot prices fell by 7 rupees and settled at 2,090 rupees per 100 kg
Yesterday we have seen that open interest at 119020 and volume at 52860 lots.
SELL SOYABEAN MAR @ 2125 SL 2142 TGT 2102-2090-2076.NCDEX
Chana fell nearly two percent due to rising arrivals and hopes of higher output. In Delhi spot market, the price inched down 2 rupees to 2,173 rupees per 100 kg. Arrivals were rising steadily in major spot markets like Indore, Nagpur, Delhi, Latur and Gulbarga. Chana dropped Rs 37 and settled at Rs 2135 per quintal. The volume was noted at 59290 lots. Support for chana is at 2114 below that could see a test of 2092. Resistance is now seen at 2169 above that could see a resistance of 2202.
Trading Ideas:
Chana trading range is 2092-2202.
Chana fell nearly two percent due to rising arrivals and hopes of higher output
Chana is getting support at 2114 and resistance is at 2152 level
Yesterday we have seen that open interest at 43150 and volume at 59290 lots.
In the Delhi spot market price inched down 2 rupees to 2,173 rupees per 100 kg
OVERALL SELLING WILL BE SEEN NEAR TO 2140-2150 LEVEL.
Turmeric rose for a sixth straight session to hit contract highs on fresh buying bolstered by low stocks and moisture in the new arrivals. Open interest is increasing in the April contract indicating fresh buying. Also there is some moisture in the fresh arrivals of Turmeric. In Nizamabad, a major spot market in Andhra Pradesh, the price jumped 589 rupees to end at 9,173 rupees against Friday's close. Turmeric yesterday we have seen that market has moved 4%. Market has opened at 8951 & made a low of 8951 versus the day high of 9126. The total volume for the day was at 910 lots and the open interest was at 28190.Support for turmeric is at 9009 below that could see a test of 8893. Resistance is now seen at 9184 above that could see a resistance of 9243.
Trading Ideas:
Turmeric trading range is 8893-9243.
Turmeric rose on fresh buying bolstered by low stocks and moisture in new arrivals
Resistance for turmeric is at 9060 and support is at 9185 level.
Yesterday we have seen that open interest at 28190 and volume at 910 lots.
In Nizamabad spot prices rose over 589 rupees and ended at 9173 rupees.
TMC ABOVE 9100 LOOK FIRM TILL 9250 LEVEL. CORRECTION IS DUE BE ALERT
Jeera fell more than a percent on a pick up in arrivals in the physical market and lacklustre demand. Harvesting of the fresh crop has started in Rajasthan, which is also adding to the downside move. Spot rates in Unjha, a key spot market in Gujarat, ended at 11,806 rupees, down 76 rupees. March contract dropped Rs 232 and settled at Rs 11525 a kg. The contract made intraday low of Rs 11430 a kg and high of Rs 11800 a kg. Support for jeera is at 11370 below that could see a test of 11215. Resistance is now seen at 11740 above that could see a resistance of 11955.
Trading Ideas:
Jeera trading range is 11215-11955.
Jeera fell yesterday on a pick up in arrivals in physical market and lacklustre demand.
Jeera looks to take support at 11410 and resistance at 11630 level
NCDEX accredited warehouses jeera stocks remained at 3979 tonnes as on Mar 6.
Spot rates in Unjha fell over 76 rupees and settled at 11806 rupees per 100 kg.
SELL JEERA MAR @ 11600-650 SL 11740 TGT 11520-11460-11380.NCDEX
Natural gas slipped pressured by balmy temperatures across most of the eastern U.S. Mild weather in the major gas-consuming regions was reducing the demand for natural gas for heating. The moderate temperatures were expected to continue over the next three weeks. Natural Gas yesterday we have seen that market has moved -1.81%. Market has opened at 208.7 & made a low of 203.5 versus the day high of 208.7. The total volume for the day was at 22217 lots and the open interest was at 12795.Now support for the Natural Gas is seen at 203.9 and below could see a test of 201.1. Resistance is now likely to be seen at 209.1, a move above could see prices testing 211.5.
Trading Ideas:
Natural Gas trading range is 201.1-211.5.
Natural gas slipped pressured by balmy temperatures across most of the eastern U.S.
Now resistance is at 209.20 above this a rally till 212-214 can be seen.
Mild weather in the major gas-consuming regions was reducing the demand for natural gas
BUY NAT.GAS MAR @ 204-205 SL 201.80 TGT 206.80-209-212.MCX
U.S. domestic primary aluminum production in December was 140,000 metric tons, down 5% from 133,000 tons the previous month and down 31% from 204,000 tons in December 2009, the U.S. Geological Survey said. Aluminium has touched a low of Rs 100.65 a kg after opening at Rs 101.45, and last traded at Rs101.05.For today market is looking for the support at 100.3, a break below could see a test of 99.6 and where as resistance is now likely to be seen at 102.1, a move above could see prices testing 103.2.
Trading Ideas:
Aluminium trading range is 99.6-103.2.
US Dec aluminium output was 140000 tonnes down by 5%.
Support for aluminium is at 100.05 and resistance is at 102.40 level.
Aluminium daily stock at Shanghai exchange came down by -73 tonnes.
BUY ALUMINIUM MAR @ 100.50 SL 99.80 TGT 101.40-102-102.80. MCX
AJAY KUMAR KEDIA
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