QUEENSTRADE
17 JULY 08
(FOR CHARTS ETC VISIT WWW.QUEENSTRADE.COM)
INTRADAY TRADING
LEVELS FOR INDICES 21 JULY 08 (FOR SUBSCRIBERS)
FOR INTRADAY TRADING ON TUESDAY 21 JUL , NIFTY SPOT MAY FIND INITIAL RESISTANCE AROUND LEVELS WHICH MAY BE BREACHED BY A GAP UP OPEN . BREACH OF MAY SEE NIFTY TO RISE TOWARDS MAJOR RESISTANCE AREA OF LEVELS . BREACH OF CAN TAKE NIFTY TO FIND RESISTANCE AROUND LEVELS . ON THE LOWER SIDE NIFTY FINDS INITIAL SUPPORT AROUND THEN LEVELS. BREACH OF CAN PULL IT DOWN NIFTY SPOT TO LEVELS. BELOW NIFTY SPOT MAY BECOME VERY WEAK TO SLIDE STRAIGHT TO LEVELS.
NSE()
SUP (CLOSING SUPT )
RES (CLOSING RES
)
SENSEX()
SUP (CLOSING SUPT )
RES(CLOSING RES )
EXCESSIVE RISE OF INDIAN MARKETS 7 TIMES BETWEEN
2002 TO 08
IF ONE COMPARES RISE OF INDIAN MARKETS TO ITS COUNTERPARTS IN ASIA, EUROPE AND USA ,ONE WILL BE SURPRISED TO FIND THAT BOTH SENSEX AND NIFTY HAD MOVED 7 TO 8 TIMES THE PRICE FROM ITS LOWEST LEVELS OF 2595 & 920 RESPECTIVELY IN OCT 02, LOWEST POINT ACHIEVED DURING THE BEAR PHASE AFTER 2000 FEB & TILL THE HIGHEST LEVEL OF 21207 & 6357IN JAN 2008 IN THE RECENT BULL RUN. COMPARED TO INDIA DURING THIS PRESENT BULL RUN, JAPAN HAD MOVED 2. 5 TIMES BETWEEN 7603 IN APR 03 TO 18300 IN FEB 07, KOREA 4TIMES BETWEEN 512 IN MAR 03 TO 2085 IN NOV 07, TAIWAN 2. 8 TIMES BETWEEN 3411 IN SEPT 01 TO 9859 IN OCT 07, SINGAPORE 3 TIMES BETWEEN 1205 IN MAR 03 TO 3906 IN OCT 07, CHINA 6 TIMES BETWEEN JUN 05 998 TO 6124 TILL OCT 07 HONGKONG 3.8 TIMES BETWEEN 8332 IN APR 03 TO 31958 IN OCT 07, UK 2 TIMES BETWEEN 3277 IN MAR 03 TO 6754 IN JULY 07 AND DOW 2 TIMES BETWEEN 7181 IN OCT 02 TO 14277 IN SEPT 07. SO INDIAN MARKETS HAVING MULTIPLIED MORE THAN 7 TIMES COMPARED TO 2 TO 3 TIMES BY OTHER COUNTERPARTS. CHINA TO HAVING CORRECTED TO SUB 3000 LAST WEEK HAS ALSO MODERATED TO LESS THAN 3 TIMES LIKE OTHER ASIAN COUNTRIES. HENCE SENSEX AND NIFTY ARE LIKELY TO CORRECT MUCH MORE THAN OTHER COUNTRIES TO COME TO THEIR LEVEL OF 3 TO 3.5 TIMES WHICH COULD BRING THEM DOWN TO SUB 10000 & 3000 LEVEL BY END OF THIS CORRECTION. AS ON 16TH JULY BOTH SENSEX ARE STILL AROUND 5 & 4. 5 TIMES THE LOWS WHICH IS MORE THAN DOUBLE OF DOW AND MANY ASIAN COUNTERPARTS.
SECOND INTERESTING FEATURE TO NOTE IS THAT, OTHER THAN INDIA, THE INDICES OF ALL THESE COUNTRIES HAD PEAKED OUT AROUND OR BEFORE OCT 07 & HAVE BEEN CORRECTING SINCE THEN WHERE AS IN CASE OF SENSEX AND NIFTY, EACH MOVED UP NEARLY 20% BETWEEN OCT 07 & JAN 08 WHICH WERE EXTENSIONS OF EXTENSION & IRREGULAR A & B CORRECTIONS ON COMPLETION OF 5 WAVE BULL MARKET AFTER WHICH THE MEGA C WAVE CORRECTION STARTED.HEDGE FUNDS, FIIS, OPERATORS LIQUIDATED IN OTHER MARKETS AND PUMPED IT INTO INDIAN MARKETS BETWEEN OCT 07 AND JAN 08. NOW REVERSE IS HAPPENING . THIS CLEARLY SUGGESTS THAT THE CORRECTION FROM 11TH JAN 08 IS JUST THE TIP OF THE ICEBERG AND BOTH SENSEX & NIFTY HAVE MUCH MORE DOWN SIDE IN STORE, WITH SMALL UPWARD CORRECTIONS AFTER EACH BIG FALL.
200 WEEK MOVING AVERAGE. MOST OF THE MAJOR INDICES INCLUDING DOW & FTSE HAVE BREACHED AND CLOSED BELOW THE 200 WEEK MOVING AVERAGE. FOR SENSEX AND NIFTY THIS 200 WEEK MOVING AVERAGE RUNS AROUND 11777 AND 3500 LEVELS. BE VERY SURE TO SEE BOTH INDICES BREACHING 200 WEEK MOVING AVERAGE IN THIS BEAR MARKETS WITHIN A FEW WEEKS TIME. WITH MOST IMPORTANT WEEKLY INDICATOR RSI HAVING GIVEN NEGATIVE DIVERGENCE ON BREACHING THE RSI LOW WHICH WAS AT THE START OF THE BULL MARKET AROUND JAN 2003, THIS CONFIRMS THE BEAR MARKET THAT CAN EVEN BREACH 3000 SPOT NIFTY WITHIN A FEW WEEKS TIME
MAJOR ELLIOTT "C" DOWN WAVE
THERE IS A LOT OF CONFUSION AMONGST READERS& SUBSCRIBERS OVER THE DEVASTATING "C" WAVE. WELL TO CLEAR ALL THE DOUBTS, AS PER ELLIOTT WAVE THEORY, THIS "C" WAVE IS DIFFERENT FROM NORMAL A,B,C CORRECTION TO THE EXTENT THAT THIS BIG "C" DOWN WAVE COMES AT THE END OF THE BULL CYCLE WHICH HAD EXTENSIONS AND EXTENSION OF EXTENSIONS AFTER 5 WAVES AND AFTER THE A & B IRREGULAR CORRECTION WHERE WAVE B GOES HIGHER THAN START OF WAVE A. THIS BIG "C" WAVE IS COMPOSED OF 5 WAVE CORRECTION OF 3 DOWN WAVES &2 RETRACEMENT UP WAVES WHICH CORRECTS THE ENTIRE BULL MARKETS 5 WAVES AND TERMINATES ABOVE THE TIP OF 1ST WAVE OF THE ENTIRE BULL RUN. AFTER COMPLETION OF THIS MEGA "C" WAVE FRESH BULL MARKET STARTS. IN THE LONG TERM CHART OF 5 YEAR BULL MARKET CYCLE , WAVE 1 WAS UP TO 2015 TILL 9 JAN 04, WAVE 2 CORRECTED TO 1292 TILL 17 MAY 04,WAVE 3 WENT UP TO 3774 TILL 12MAY 06, WAVE 4 FELL TO 2596 TILL 16 JUN 06, WAVE 5 WENT UP TO 4245 TILL 9FEB 07, THEN EXTENSION & EXTENSIONS OF EXTENSION OF 5TH WAVE TOOK IT TO ORTHODOX TOP OF 6012 TILL 2 NOV 07, IRREGULAR CORRECTIVE WAVE A BROUGHT INDEX DOWN TO 5394 TILL 23 NOV 07, IRREGULAR WAVE B MADE AN IRREGULAR TOP AT 6357 ON 08 JAN 08 HIGHER THAN THE PREVIOUS ORTHODOX TOP& ALSO BREACHED THE LONG TERM RESISTANCE CHANNEL AS PER ELLIOTT WAVE THEORY, AFTER WHICH DEVASTATING WAVE "C" STARTED AT 6357 ON 11 JAN 08. HAVING COMPLETED 1ST DOWN WAVE OF WAVE C OF 1909 POINTS AT 4448, WAVE 2 RETRACEMENT WAS A TRIANGLE WITH TOP AT 5545 OR A 3,3,5 FLAT WITH 1ST SET OF 3 UP COMPLETED AT 5545ON 4TH FEB 08, 2ND SET OF 3 DOWN WAS COMPLETED AT 4468 ON 18TH MARCH AND THE FINAL SET OF 5 UP WAS COMPLETED AT 5299 ON 2ND MAY 08. THUS THE RETRACEMENT 2ND WAVE FINALLY GOT COMPLETED ON 02 MAY 08. 3RD MAJOR DOWN WAVE OF WAVE "C" HAS COMMENCED FROM 5299 ON 02 MAY. IN ANY CASE ANOTHER MUCH BIGGER FALL THE 3RD WAVE OF WAVE C, LARGER THAN JANUARY 08 FALL IS DEFINITELY ON THE CARDS AND HAS STARTED SINCE 2ND MAY 08.
AS ON 16 JULY 08 WE ARE PERHAPS IN THE LONGEST DOWN
SUB WAVE THE 3RD SUB WAVE OF THE MAJOR 3RD DOWN WAVE OF WAVE "C" WITH 1ST SUB
WAVE HAVING BEEN COMPLETED AT 4370 ON 10 JUNE 08 . 3RD MAJOR DOWN WAVE OF WAVE
"C" WHICH HAS STARTED FROM 5299 ON 2ND MAY 08, WILL HAVE 5 SUB WAVES WITH 3
SUB WAVES DOWN AND 2 SUB WAVES UP, IS THE LARGEST DOWN WAVE OF 5 WAVES OF "C"
MAJOR AND MAY BE 1.38 OR 1.62 TIMES THE SIZE OF 1ST DOWN WAVE. EVEN IF IT IS
EQUAL TO 1ST DOWN WAVE OF 1909 POINTS, IT CAN COME DOWN TILL 3636 FROM TOP OF
2 ND WAVE AT 5545. OR IF ONE THINKS OF START OF 3 RD DOWN WAVE FROM 2ND MAY 08
HIGH OF 5299, THEN THIS CAN COME DOWN AT LEAST TO 3390, AND 1. 38 FIBONACCY
TIMES OF 1ST DOWN WAVE WILL PULL IT DOWN TO SUB 3000 LEVELS. AS PER ELLIOTT
WAVE THEORY & LONG TERM WEEKLY & MONTHLY CHARTS, 5 WAVES OF WAVE "C" MAY
FINALLY TERMINATE AROUND 25OO LEVELS OR JUST ABOVE THE TIP OF WAVE 1 WHICH IS
AROUND 2015. HOWEVER WHEN IT WILL REACH THERE IS DEBATABLE, PERHAPS BY ELECTION
2009..THE MOST IMPORTANT FACTOR TO NOTE IS THAT ALL THE BIG FALLS WILL COME
ABRUPTLY WITHOUT ANY PRE INDICATION AND ALL THE RETRACEMENT UP MOVES WILL BE
BAFFLING, CROSSING EXPECTED INTRADAY RESISTANCES WITH EASE AND WITH VERY LOW
VOLUMES. STOCK MARKET PLAYERS SHOULD AND MUST REALIZE THAT MARKETS HAVE
THEIR OWN UP & DOWN CYCLES LIKE SEASON OR WEATHER OR INDUSTRIAL PRODUCTION OR
PROFIT & LOSS CYCLES OR EVEN THE LUCK , HEALTH OR FINANCE CYCLES OF HUMAN
BEINGS, WHICH IS A NATURAL PROCESS & NO AMOUNT OF HUMAN EFFORT HOWEVER STRONG
CAN CHANGE MARKET CYCLES. FIBONACCY RULES GENERALLY GIVE SOME CLUE TO THE
DURATION & AMPLITUDE OF VARIOUS LONG OR SHORT CYCLES OF MARKETS. ONCE THE TIME
IS UP THE CYCLE WILL CHANGE, SO IT IS WISER TO UNDERSTAND & OBEY NATURES LAWS
AND FOLLOW THE CYCLIC TREND TO BENEFIT FROM IT. (REFERENCE BOOK ELLIOTT WAVE
EXPLAINED )
CASH & FUTURES TRADE FOR 21
JULY 08( 10 TRADING JEWELS FOR 21
JULY 08)
BULLISH / BEARISH
CASH & FUTURES FOR 21 JULY:-
(BUY IN BULLISH MARKET CONDITIONS ONLY&
SHORT IN BEAR MARKET CONDITIONS INTRADAY)
(SHORTING
& COVERING SHORTS, BUYING & BOOKING PROFIT POINTS FOR STOCK FUTURES AND NIFTY
FUTURES ARE FOR SUBSCRIBERS ONLY TO BE SENT DIRECTLY TO THEM AS PER INTRADAY
CHARTS DURING MARKET HOURS. )
1 TO 10. FOR SUBSCRIBERS ONLY
OPTION TRADING
TRADING ADVICE FOR SMALL CAPITAL TRADERS
( RS.20,000 TO 30,000)(ONLY FOR SUBSCRIBERS
BY SMS & YAHOO MESSENGER)
AS & WHEN TRADING OPPORTUNITY COMES DURING
THE DAY FOR THE UNDER MENTIONED ACTIVE OPTIONS
1. TISCO 680 PUT BUY AT--SELL AT--
2.TISCO 660 PUT BUY AT----SELL AT--
3. IFCI 40 CALL & PUT BUY AT-- SELL AT
4.RIL 2000CALL& PUT BUY AT- SELL AT-
5.RCOM 400 PUT BUY AT-SELL AT-
6.CAIRN 240 PUT BUY AT -SELL AT-
7. NIFTY FUTR BUY AT--SELL AT--
8. NIFTY 4000 CALL SELL- AT-BUY -
9.NIFTY 4000 PUT BUY-AT--SELL AT--
10.NIFTY 3900 PUT BUY AT-- BUY AT
11.NIFTY 3800
PUT BUY AT--SELLAT--
11. ITC 200 PUT BUY AT--SELL AT--
IMPORTANT POINTS FOR OPTION TRADERS
AS OPTION TRADER
REMEMBER CERTAIN GOLDEN RULES FOR OPTION TRADING
1. DONT HOLD AND SIT TIGHT WITH YOUR OPTION. TRADE EVERY DAY. SAY, YOU HAVE BOUGHT A PUT OPTION AT 100, LETS SAY IT HAS COME TO 90, YOU DONT HAVE TO WAIT FOR IT TO GO ABOVE 100 TO BOOK PROFIT, YOU SELL YOUR OPTION ON MARKETS INTRADAY FALL AND YOU BUY BACK THE OPTION ON MARKET RISE AND POCKET THE DIFFERENCE OF ATLEAST 10 TO 15. AS FAR AS POSSIBLE AVOID CARRYING OVER OF OPTIONS UNLESS YOU ARE SURE OF THE MARKETS NEXT DAY. IF YOU BOUGHT A CALL OR A PUT AT START OF THE MONTH AT 150, YOU WILL FIND ITS VALUE AT 75 OR LESS BY MIDDLE OF THE MONTH SO IF YOU HAVE NOT TRADED DAILY , HALF OF THE VALUE IS LOST BY MID MONTH.
2.WHETHER MARKET GOES UP OR DOWN OR FLAT, OPTION VALUE WILL REDUCE BY ATLEAST 5 POINTS EVERY DAY, SO TRADING DAILY AT LEAST GIVES YOU BACK THE DAILY 5 POINT AUTOMATIC LOSS DUE TO TIME DECAY.SO WRITING OPTIONS(SELLING FRESH A CALL INSTEAD OF BUYING A PUT AFTER MARKET RISE OR SELLING FRESH A PUT INSTEAD OF BUYING A CALL AFTER MARKET FALLS) HAVE A MUCH BETTER CHANCE OF GAIN THAN BUYING OPTIONS.
3. IF YOUR OPTION VALUE GOES DOWN BY 25% , BOLDLY QUIT THE OPTION. THIS WILL PROTECT YOU FROM SEEING ZERO VALUE FOR YOUR OPTION.(THIS IS THE MOST IMPORTANT POINT IN OPTION TRADING, PEOPLE GENERALLY BOOK BIG LOSS IN OPTIONS WHEN THIS GOLDEN POINT IS NEGLECTED.)
4. DO NOT EXHAUST
ALL YOUR MONEY IN BUYING OPTIONS. ONLY TRADE IN 60% OF MONEY AND ALWAYS HAVE 40%
RESERVE FOR OPPORTUNISTIC TRADES.
5.THOUGH AVERAGING OF OPTIONS LOOKS VERY ATTRACTIVE, IT IS LIKE SLOW POISION. AVOID AVERAGING AS FAR AS POSSIBLE. ADJUST YOUR MIND TO DO REVERSE TRADE, MEANING IN CASE OF HOLDING 5000 PUT SELL A LOWER OPTION SAY 4900 PUT IN CASE OF FALL IN MARKETS & RISE IN PUT VALUE, OR IN CASE HOLDING 5100CALL, THEN ON MARKET RISE WHEN CALL VALUE RISES SELL HIGHER CALL OF 5200 OR IF HOLDING A PUT, BOLDLY BUY A CALL AGAINST THE OBJECTION OF YOUR MIND.
6. THE ABOVE OPTION
RULES ARE TIME TESTED AND MOSTLY FOUND TO BE CORRECT. ALTHOUGH MOST OF THE
TIME YOUR ANALYST WILL GUIDE YOU WHEN TO BUY OR SELL BUT YOU ON YOUR OWN ALSO
BE RIGID ON THE ABOVE 5 GOLDEN RULES FOR OPTIONS.YOU MAY FAIL ONCE BUT 9 OUT
OF 10 TIMES YOU YOU WILL NOT REGRET.
Advice
for Stocks, Futures&
Options(Intra
day) Stop
Loss not to be fed but must be kept in mind to quit the position ( DATA GIVEN
BELOW MAY NOT BE SUITABLE AFTER MARKET OPENS. SO TRADE ONLY ON PRICES SENT
THROUGH MOBILE SMS / Y. SMS)
Buying Trade:- FOR
SUBSCRIBERS--SMS/ Y MSNGER
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SL. |
Name |
Buy at |
Stop loss |
Target |
Remarks |
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1 |
Nifty Futr |
Subscribers |
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Buying Point For Subscribers Only |
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2 |
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subscriber |
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DO |
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3 |
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--do-- |
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DO |
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4 |
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--do-- |
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DO |
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5 |
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--do-- |
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DO |
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SL. |
Name |
Sell at |
Stop loss |
Target |
Remarks |
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1 |
NIFTY Futr |
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Also Short boldly if spot NSE cross -- level(level for subscribers only) |
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2 |
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Subscribers only |
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3 |
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Subscribers only |
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4 |
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Subscribers only |
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5 |
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Subscribers only |